MD 0789 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 250… FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL KS
Mesoscale Discussion 0789 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0645 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017 Areas affected...South-central KS Concerning...Tornado Watch 250... Valid 192345Z - 200045Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 250 continues. SUMMARY...Some isolated damaging wind gusts and/or a brief tornado are possible for the next hour or so but a gradually diminishing threat is anticipated. DISCUSSION...Recent KICT radar imagery suggests the cells within the line moving across central KS have become more outflow-dominant. This more outflow-dominant storm structure and continued linear forcing for ascent provided by the cold front suggest persistence of the currently observed linear mode. Downstream kinematic environment is still favorable for low-level rotation given veering wind profile characterized by southeasterly surface winds around 15 kt and mid-level flow from the southwest at 50 kt. Recent ICT VAD data estimates the 0-1 km SRH is over 150 m2/s2. However, the thermodynamic environment is less favorable as drier air has moved in from the east, dropping dewpoints into the mid 60s. Recent mesoanalysis estimates MLCAPE of less than 1000 J/kg downstream of the ongoing cluster. Overall, some threat for damaging wind gusts and a brief tornado still exists but the linear storm mode and increasingly hostile downstream thermodynamic environment suggest a gradually diminishing threat. ..Mosier.. 05/19/2017 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC... LAT...LON 36779852 38349850 38569616 36969618 36779852
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/1sHkP5J
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