SPC MD 789

MD 0789 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF WESTERN/CENTRAL MISSOURI AND FAR EASTERN KANSAS

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0789
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0116 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF WESTERN/CENTRAL MISSOURI AND FAR EASTERN
KANSAS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 301816Z - 302015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SCATTERED CONVECTION IS INCREASING...PARTICULARLY IN
EASTERN KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI.  HAIL AND WIND WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY...AND THE REGION WILL BE
MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN A REGION JUST
AHEAD OF A REMNANT VORT MAX FROM A PREVIOUS MCS LOCATED OVER
OKLAHOMA.  CONVECTION HAS FORMED ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A COLD
POOL OVER SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI AND FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS...AND
FARTHER NORTH JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE KANSAS CITY METRO.  OBJECTIVE
ANALYSES AND MODEL POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATED THAT THESE
STORMS ARE IN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MEAGER LOW AND DEEP
SHEAR...BUT MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY /AROUND 2000-3000 J/KG
MUCAPE/ SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST A LOWER-END SEVERE THREAT.  A FEW
SEVERE WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY WITH THIS ACTIVITY GIVEN THEIR EXPECTED
OUTFLOW-DOMINANT NATURE...AND HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN STEEP
LAPSE RATES ALOFT.  CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS /PARTICULARLY THE
HRRR/ SUGGEST THAT STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO GROW IN COVERAGE
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON...WHILE PROPAGATING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD POOL.  

A WW ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE FOR THIS ACTIVITY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.

..COOK/CORFIDI.. 05/30/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...OAX...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON   36969480 37449514 38259538 39179576 39809574 40169550
            40329505 40269445 40059337 39529227 38829164 38029143
            37359181 37019232 36869262 36609319 36669384 36709415
            36969480 

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from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://1.usa.gov/1sHkP5J