MD 0835 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 255… FOR NORTHEAST KS…NORTHWEST MO AND SOUTHWEST IA
Mesoscale Discussion 0835
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0159 AM CDT Fri Jun 05 2020
Areas affected...northeast KS...northwest MO and southwest IA
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 255...
Valid 050659Z - 050830Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 255
continues.
SUMMARY...Severe, locally damaging wind gusts and hail are possible
over the next couple of hours, especially along the I-70 corridor
from Topeka to Kansas City.
DISCUSSION...Intense convection continues to track southeast across
WW 255 at around 40 kt, with some potential for an increase in
forward speed over the next hour. Backed surface winds from the
east/southeast are sustaining surface dewpoints in the low 70s F
ahead of the line of convection beneath moderately steep midlevel
lapse rates. This is aiding in MLCAPE values in excess of 2000 J/kg
across the region. Examination of regional VWPs show increasing 1-2
km southwesterly winds at TWX and evidence of a rear-inflow jet from
OAX. The 00z RAOB from TOP further indicates a thermodynamic profile
supportive of strong downdrafts. Furthermore, recent radar data
suggests evidence of possibly descending rear-inflow across
Pottawatomie County KS where lower reflectivity notches are noted
behind the line. Given a favorable environment ahead of this
organized line of storms, expect that severe, locally damaging,
gusts will continue as the storms move east/southeast toward TOP and
MCI in the vicinity of the I-70 corridor.
Another corridor of strong to severe winds is possible further north
from far northwest MO toward toward CDJ, though this portion of the
line is expected to traverse a somewhat weaker instability gradient.
..Leitman.. 06/05/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...
LAT...LON 41159591 41149491 40389337 39109296 38569348 38349448
38439595 38889696 39499717 40289641 41159591
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions https://bit.ly/30aYXUP
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