MD 0085 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TO CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0085 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0702 PM CST Wed Feb 21 2018 Areas affected...far northern Oklahoma to central/eastern Kansas Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation Valid 220102Z - 220500Z SUMMARY...Pockets of freezing rain, mixing with sleet, will continue to develop across the region this evening. Freezing rain rates up to a few hundredths of an inch per hour will be possible. DISCUSSION...Within the entrance region of a powerful upper-level jet, showery activity has developed from the Texas Panhandle northeastward to the Wichita, KS metro. 00Z soundings from AMA, OUN, DDC, and TOP all depict a 700-500mb thermal structure potentially supportive of weak mid-level buoyancy, such that very shallow convection is expected to persist this evening. Additionally, weak warm advection and related isentropic ascent near 850-700mb will further support the development of precipitation. Related to this elevated warm advection, model guidance and mesoanalysis data depict a slow north/northwestward progression of the 850mb 0C line over the next several hours, and this is confirmed by a northward advance of a melting layer signature noted in KICT data. Along the northern fringe of the discussion area, sleet may be more common. Farther south, freezing rain potential will be higher, although some mixing with sleet may still occur, especially in heavier showers that favor re-freezing in the boundary layer. Regardless, freezing rain rates up to a few hundredths of an inch per hour will be possible into the early overnight, with freezing drizzle possible outside of heavier precipitation. ..Picca.. 02/22/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC... LAT...LON 38359828 38819739 39029546 38939516 38609511 38259555 37399681 36729748 36479796 36289874 36589898 36969903 38359828
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