MD 0857 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 273… FOR NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0857 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0335 AM CDT Sat May 27 2017 Areas affected...North-central and northeast Kansas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 273... Valid 270835Z - 271030Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 273 continues. SUMMARY...Storms -- and local severe risk -- continue moving east across north-central Kansas. New/downstream WW may be needed, though some uncertainty exists. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows strong/locally severe storms crossing parts of north-central Kansas, with the strongest activity now preparing to enter western parts of Russell and Barton counties. While ample -- though elevated -- downstream instability appears to exist, VWP data continues to suggest that the strongest portion of the LLJ (ssely at 40 to 50 kt) remains across western Kansas. With low-level inflow much weaker (around 20 kt from the southeast) across central and eastern Kansas, some uncertainty with respect to downstream severe risk is evident, as storms eventually vacate WW 273. Along these lines, the latest runs of the NCEP and ESRL HRRR both suggest that storms will weaken with time. Still, given the fairly well-organized/intense character of the existing cluster of storms, we will continue to monitor trends over the next hour or so with respect to the need for downstream WW issuance. ..Goss.. 05/27/2017 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD... LAT...LON 38500034 39879922 39639726 39769589 38989553 38309577 38500034
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/2qm5Xxa
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