MD 0870 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0870
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0751 PM CDT Sun Jun 24 2018
Areas affected...North Central Kansas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 250051Z - 250215Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Storms over north central Kansas will pose a risk for
isolated damaging wind until around 0230-03Z, after which a gradual
diminishing trend is expected. Due to the limited coverage and
duration of remaining threat, a WW is not anticipated.
DISCUSSION...Line of storms developing along cold front is
approaching Hill City and moving east at around 35 kt. Downstream
from the line, modest instability is present with low 80s F
temperatures and low 60s F dewpoints supporting 1000-1500 J/kg
MLCAPE. At present, storms remain organized and a rear inflow jet
should help to maintain a forward propagating MCS next couple hours.
Activity will eventually merge with convection developing along a
surface trough just west of Concordia. Storms in the line may remain
strong to severe prior to and during the merger followed by a
decrease as the thermodynamic environment becomes increasingly
marginal.
..Dial/Grams.. 06/25/2018
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...
LAT...LON 38909980 39659945 40189930 40239832 39739790 38939867
38909980
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