MD 0876 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA
Mesoscale Discussion 0876
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0514 PM CDT Mon Jun 25 2018
Areas affected...Eastern Nebraska and Western Iowa
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 252214Z - 260015Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Storms are developing near a warm front across southwest
Iowa and in southeast Nebraska along the leading edge of an
upper-level vorticity max/surface trough. This is a moderate
shear/low CAPE environment with strong wind gusts, hail, and brief
tornadoes possible.
DISCUSSION...Storms are firing along a warm front in southwest Iowa
with modest buoyancy (MLCAPE 500-1000 J/kg), but moderate shear
(effective SRH 250+ m2/s2). Storms should continue moving to the
north-northeast as the warm front lifts northward. Given favorable
hodographs and the shear vector aligned perpendicular to the warm
front, brief tornadoes are possible with any stronger storm that
develops. Strong wind gusts and hail are also possible.
Farther to the west, storms are developing along a surface trough as
an upper-level vorticity max moves into the area. Modest buoyancy
(MLCAPE 500-1000 J/kg) and marginal effective bulk shear (30-35
knots) should produce a loosely-organized multicellular cluster that
will move easterly. The main threat will be strong wind gusts as
modest mid-level lapse rates will limit large-hail production.
..Nauslar/Cook/Edwards.. 06/25/2018
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...
LAT...LON 41199764 41479697 41689588 41769442 41449368 41239320
40829309 40409314 40319377 40189461 40059575 39989677
39959745 41199764
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/2K8zS66
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