MD 0930 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 301… FOR EASTERN KS…SOUTHWEST MO
Mesoscale Discussion 0930 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 PM CDT Wed May 31 2017 Areas affected...Eastern KS...Southwest MO Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 301... Valid 311845Z - 311945Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 301 continues. SUMMARY...Severe storms will continue to develop across eastern KS spreading into west-central and southwest MO this afternoon. While large hail has been, and should continue to be, the primary severe risk with the northern cluster of storms spreading from eastern KS into west-central MO, an additional threat for damaging winds can be expected with storms moving from southeast KS into southwest MO. DISCUSSION...Objective analyses based on the RAP indicated a moderately unstable environment has developed along and south of a surface front which stretched from central MO into central KS this afternoon. Vertically veering wind profiles with southerly surface winds in the warm sector and 30-40 kt west-northwesterly winds at 500 mb will continue to result in sufficient effective bulk shear of 35-40 kt across KS into MO. These factors coupled with steep midlevel lapse rates of 8-8.5 C/km spreading across the discussion area suggest additional large hail and damaging wind gusts will be possible. The latter threat will be greatest in southeast KS into southwest MO where low-level lapse rates are expected to be steeper. The primary forcing mechanism for the increase in thunderstorm coverage this afternoon appears to be a midlevel perturbation tracking through eastern KS at this time per water vapor imagery. This trough and attendant forcing for ascent will spread into central and southern MO this afternoon and evening, supporting additional storm development and severe threat. ..Peters/Hart.. 05/31/2017 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT... LAT...LON 36509276 36509312 36509411 36509451 36509462 37009506 37389508 37549508 37569508 37819508 38689506 38749505 38849461 38839416 38839412 38529306 37479269 37259268 37249268 37169268 37119268 37099268 37069269 36509276 36509276
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/2snzeUW
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