MD 0954 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND OTHER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
Mesoscale Discussion 0954 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020 Areas affected...western South Dakota and other portions of the northern High Plains Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 211905Z - 212130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop across western South Dakota and surrounding areas this afternoon. As these storms move southeast, damaging winds and large hail are possible. Given the likely marginal and isolated nature of the severe threat, a watch issuance is unlikely. DISCUSSION...West-northwest upper-level flow is overspread the northern Rockies and Plains with multiple low-amplitude shortwave troughs embedded within it per water vapor imagery. Sporadic lightning has been observed across portions of eastern Idaho and northern Wyoming this morning into early afternoon with a few observed lightning flashes in western South Dakota during the last hour with struggling convection. Given the moisture and forcing for ascent aloft, cloud cover has mitigated insolation across much of the northern high Plains/vicinity. This along with diffuse surface convergence have delayed and limited convective initiation. However, deeper cumulus clouds and higher cloud tops have been observed recently indicating potential destabilization. As surface temperatures warm into the 70s to low 80s F storm coverage will likely increase. Storms are expected to develop during the afternoon and into the evening and move generally to the southeast across the area. The overall storm environment represents a marginally severe threat for large hail and damaging winds with coverage of severe storms likely relatively limited. ..Nauslar/Guyer.. 06/21/2020 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR...CYS...BYZ... LAT...LON 42150121 42760445 44790559 45470535 46490424 46320300 45510075 44910012 43970021 42150121
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions https://bit.ly/37NgIv7
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