MD 0994 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NERN KS…SERN NEB…NRN MO…SRN IA…W-CNTRL IL
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0994
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0307 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS...SERN NEB...NRN MO...SRN IA...W-CNTRL IL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 202007Z - 202130Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORM INITIATION IS POSSIBLE BY 21Z ALONG A COLD
FRONT. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL AND WIND.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION...RECENT VIS IMAGERY INDICATES INCREASING CU ALONG AND
JUST NORTH OF A COLD FRONT RUNNING FROM W-CNTRL IL WSWWD THROUGH NRN
MO/KS INTO E-CNTRL CO. WHILE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS WEAK AT BEST
ACROSS THE REGION...CONTINUED BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING AND LOW-LEVEL
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL CIRCULATION SHOULD EVENTUALLY
RESULT IN AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY 20-21Z. IN
ADDITION...ELEVATED CONVECTION NORTH OF THE FRONT MAY PROPAGATE SEWD
OUT OF SWRN IA AND BECOME ROOTED CLOSER TO THE SURFACE.
MODERATE-TO-STRONG BUOYANCY HAS DEVELOPED NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE
FRONT...WITH RECENT MESOANALYSIS INDICATING MLCAPE OF 2000-3000
J/KG. WHILE THE STRONGEST MIDLEVEL FLOW IS NORTH OF THE
FRONT...THERE IS SUFFICIENT FLOW TO SUPPORT 25-30 KTS OF EFFECTIVE
SHEAR...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT SOME POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SHORT-LIVED
STORM ORGANIZATION.
RELATIVELY WARM MIDLEVEL TEMPS WILL TEMPER THE HAIL THREAT TO SOME
EXTENT...THOUGH THERE IS SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY TO SUPPORT AT LEAST A
LOW-END SEVERE HAIL RISK. A DAMAGING WIND RISK WILL ALSO EXIST DUE
TO THE POTENTIAL FOR WET MICROBURSTS AND SHORT-LIVED BOWING SEGMENTS
RESULTING FROM STORM MERGERS. WHILE THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE COVERAGE AND MAGNITUDE OF THE SEVERE THREAT...WATCH
ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE IF TRENDS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE
SEVERE STORMS.
..DEAN/GUYER.. 06/20/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...
LAT...LON 40379622 40529476 40749381 40809327 41169015 40689001
40169000 39689069 39429143 39299247 39169378 39169493
39259564 39479631 40249657 40379622
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://1.usa.gov/28JruHH
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