SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CST Mon Nov 05 2018 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM A PORTION OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms with locally strong wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two will be possible from a portion of the Southeast States to the Middle Atlantic region. ...A portion of the Southeast States into Middle Atlantic region... Surface low will occlude over the Great Lakes Tuesday morning in association with a northeast-ejecting shortwave trough. Trailing front will move off the Middle Atlantic seaboard by evening, but southwest extension of this boundary will stall from southern portions of the Gulf Coast States into TX. Showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing along and just ahead of a cold front from the OH Valley into a part of the Gulf Coast states with a modest risk for isolated damaging wind. This activity may weaken as it crosses the Appalachians due to the very marginal thermodynamic environment. A strong southerly low-level jet will transport low-mid 60s F dewpoints into the Middle Atlantic region contributing to potential for surface-based destabilization with 400-800 J/kg MLCAPE. Redevelopment of low-topped convection with embedded thunderstorms may occur, especially from central/eastern Carolinas to VA and eastern PA as the surface layer moistens and destabilizes during the day. The convection will be embedded within a strong kinematic environment with wind profiles supportive of updraft rotation and a few bowing segments. Tendency for the deeper forcing to shift north, away from the more unstable portion of the warm sector and the overall weak thermodynamic environment remain limiting factors, but feel threat is sufficient to maintain the slight risk for this update. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 5% - Slight Wind: 15% - Slight Hail: <5% - None ..Dial.. 11/05/2018
from SPC Convective Outlooks http://bit.ly/1LLgHXu
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